In a surprising political shift, India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) announced a nationwide caste census, a move seen as a direct response to mounting pressure from opposition parties ahead of the crucial Bihar Assembly elections later this year. The decision, long resisted by the BJP, has sparked debates about its timing and intent, with experts calling it a strategic masterstroke to undercut the opposition’s "social justice" narrative. For years, the BJP avoided endorsing a caste census, arguing that it could deepen social divisions.
Instead, the party focused on unifying Hindu voters under broad themes of nationalism and development. However, with Bihar’s elections approaching and opposition parties like the Congress and Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) aggressively pushing for caste-based surveys, the BJP faced a dilemma: stick to its ideological stance or adapt to ground realities.
The answer came swiftly. On May 1, 2025, the Cabinet Committee on Political Affairs, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, greenlit the census-a decision timed just six months before Bihar votes. Analysts suggest the move aims to preempt opposition campaigns by co-opting a key opposition demand, leaving rivals like Rahul Gandhi scrambling to claim credit.
Additionally, it seeks to secure Other Backward Classes (OBC) votes, which form over 27% of Bihar’s population, and stabilize alliances within the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), particularly with ally Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)), which has strongly backed the census. By presenting a united front, the BJP hopes to counter challenges from younger leaders like Tejashwi Yadav of the RJD and Prashant Kishor of Jan Suraaj, who have been vocal about caste-based representation.
Bihar, often called the "laboratory of caste politics," is a litmus test for the BJP’s strategy. The state’s previous caste survey, conducted in 2023 under the erstwhile Mahagathbandhan government, revealed stark disparities, fueling demands for greater representation and resources for marginalized groups. By initiating a national census, the BJP aims to neutralize the vulnerability of JD(U) leader Nitish Kumar, who faces criticism over his party’s reliance on older voters, and counter Tejashwi Yadav’s influence among Yadavs and Muslims by courting Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs) and Dalits.
However, while the decision may yield short-term gains, it carries long-term risks. The RSS, the BJP’s ideological parent, has historically opposed caste-based politics, favoring Hindu unity, which could alienate the party’s traditional upper-caste base. Critics also argue that the BJP might delay or manipulate census findings to avoid unsettling its core voters, as seen in Bihar’s earlier surveys.
If the census data reveals systemic inequalities, it could reignite demands for caste-based quotas, pressuring the BJP to act against its broader narrative of "Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas" (Development for All). The BJP’s gamble hinges on balancing electoral pragmatism with ideological consistency. While the move may help consolidate OBC votes in Bihar, it also signals a tacit admission of caste’s enduring influence-a reality the party once sought to transcend.
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For voters, the census could reshape welfare policies and political representation, but its success depends on transparency and execution. As Bihar gears up for a high-stakes election, the BJP’s U-turn underscores a fundamental truth in Indian politics: caste, despite decades of progress, remains an inescapable force. Whether this decision becomes a template for future polls or a one-time compromise, its impact will reverberate far beyond 2025.
With inputs from agencies
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