As India awaits the full onset of the southwest monsoon, the country is already dealing with extreme pre-monsoon weather activity. A potentially dangerous system over the Arabian Sea threatens to develop into Cyclone Shakthi, triggering red alerts, evacuations, and intense rainfall across Maharashtra, Goa, and other coastal states. Meanwhile, structural hazards in Mumbai are compounding the weather crisis, with thousands at risk.
Cyclone Shakthi: IMD Monitors Intensifying Arabian Sea System
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has confirmed that a low-pressure system hovering over the east-central Arabian Sea, off the Konkan-Goa coast, may intensify into a depression within 36 hours and potentially become Cyclone Shakthi.
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The system is being energized by an upper-air cyclonic circulation, creating "intense to very intense convection"—a sign of vertical air movement crucial to cyclone development.
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The IMD warns of further intensification as the system tracks northwards.
Should it develop into a cyclone, the storm will be named Shakthi—a Tamil word meaning “power,” proposed by Sri Lanka.
Widespread Alerts: Maharashtra and Goa on High Warning
Red and Orange Alerts Across Western India
The IMD has issued a red alert—signifying extremely heavy rainfall—for Goa, Raigad, and Ratnagiri on May 23. Simultaneously, an orange alert—indicating very heavy rainfall—has been issued for:
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Mumbai
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Thane
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Palghar
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Sindhudurg
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Pune Ghats
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Satara
These alerts are in place from May 23 through the weekend.
Expected Weather Impact
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Rainfall: Heavy to extremely heavy showers with thunderstorms and gusty winds
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Wind speeds: 30–40 km/h, possibly reaching up to 60 km/h
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Thunderstorm activity: Strong gusts and lightning are expected
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Sea conditions: Likely to be rough from May 23 and very rough between May 24–27
IMD Officials Speak
According to IMD scientist Akhil Srivastava, the system is “likely to intensify and move northwards,” possibly affecting more areas along the west coast. IMD official Shubhangi Bhute noted that “the entire Konkan coast has been placed under orange alert,” citing intensification within 36 hours.
Mumbai Weather: Pre-Monsoon Rains Lash the City
Mumbai has already started experiencing the impact of the brewing system:
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Rainfall: 27 mm at Santacruz, 10 mm at Colaba as of Thursday morning
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Temperature drop: Santacruz recorded a low of 22.5°C, five degrees below normal
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May rainfall spike: Over 100 mm of rain has been recorded this month—700% above average
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Alert status: An orange alert is in effect for Mumbai on May 23–24
Fishermen Advised to Stay Ashore
The IMD has strongly advised fishermen not to venture into the sea, especially along the western coastline. The sea conditions are projected to become dangerous over the next few days.
IMD Key Warnings:
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Avoid the Somalia coast and southwest Arabian Sea: May 22–27
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Avoid the southwest and west-central Arabian Sea: May 25–26
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Return to shore by May 23 afternoon
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Fishing operations suspended over Eastcentral and Northeast Arabian Sea: May 25–27
Structural Risk in Mumbai: 96 Buildings Declared ‘Extremely Dangerous’
Amid this meteorological turmoil, the Maharashtra Housing and Area Development Authority (MHADA) has identified 96 old buildings in Mumbai that pose a high collapse risk during heavy rains.
Key Details:
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Residents at risk: 3,162 people
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Evacuation status: Notices issued to 184 tenants so far
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High-risk zones: Bora Bazaar, Mohammed Ali Road, Falkland Road, Mazgaon, Girgaum, Khetwadi, Dadar-Matunga
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Transition plan: MHADA is shifting affected families to transit camps
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The buildings were flagged by MHADA’s Mumbai Building Repairs and Reconstruction Board (MBRRB) during its annual pre-monsoon safety survey
Notably, two buildings on the list were also marked high-risk in 2024, showing persisting structural vulnerabilities in the city.
Broader Weather Patterns Across India
Konkan and Coastal States
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Continued rainfall is expected across Gujarat, Karnataka, Kerala, and the Konkan region
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Isolated extremely heavy rainfall likely over Konkan and Goa from May 22–24
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Coastal Karnataka may see very heavy rainfall on May 24
Northeast and Central India
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Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Tripura, Arunachal Pradesh, and Sikkim will witness persistent rainfall
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Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Odisha are likely to be affected by thunderstorms and heavy showers
Northern India: Hailstorms and Heatwaves
Storm Activity:
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Himachal Pradesh & Uttarakhand: Isolated hailstorms forecast for May 23–24
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West Rajasthan: Duststorms with wind speeds of 40–50 km/h expected between May 23–25
Heatwave Conditions:
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Severe heatwave: West Rajasthan (May 22–24)
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Heatwave pockets: Jammu, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, North Madhya Pradesh (May 23)
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Warm night conditions: Likely in south Haryana, Punjab, and West Rajasthan
Southwest Monsoon Onset Imminent
According to the IMD, atmospheric and oceanic conditions are favorable for the onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala within 2–3 days. From there, the monsoon is expected to progress across:
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Southern Arabian Sea
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Lakshadweep
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Tamil Nadu
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Bay of Bengal
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Northeastern India
Storms, Structural Risk, and the Monsoon Horizon
India's west coast is staring down a perfect storm: a potential cyclone, dangerous building conditions in Mumbai, and widespread alerts from the IMD. With Cyclone Shakthi possibly forming, evacuation advisories, red alerts, and stormy seas, government agencies are racing against time to mitigate disaster.
As monsoon onset looms, it is crucial for residents to heed weather warnings, stay indoors during heavy rainfall, and follow evacuation orders promptly. The coming days may test the country’s disaster preparedness, but early alerts and preventive measures offer hope for resilience.
With inputs from agencies
Image Source: Multiple agencies
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